The most reliable edge in July isn’t information, it’s the market’s habit of extrapolating a tiny sample into a permanent verdict. Jonathon Brooks has played three NFL games, run the ball nine times for a couple dozen yards, and torn the same ACL twice, so the field has quietly filed him under “fragile” and moved on. Read the odds instead of the injury sheet. He’s been climbing all spring for a reason, sitting around #102 overall and RB #36. Meanwhile he has a very possible path to a starting workload with upside much higher than RB #36.
My reasoning here isn’t complicated, Rico Dowdle, who took over as Carolina’s lead back last season, signed with the Steelers. The Panthers replaced him with A.J. Dillon, a competent veteran who profiles as a backup, not a threat to a former second-rounder. Brooks was fully cleared for the offseason program back in April and is competing for the lead role in Dave Canales’ offense. When a full-time job opens up and the only bodies in the way are Chuba Hubbard as the incumbent and Dillon as depth, the probability of a real workload is a lot higher than a ninth-round tag implies. The consensus projection is roughly 155 carries and 620-plus rushing yards with a few scores. That’s a low-end RB2 line coming out of an RB4 draft slot. That’s a positive expected-value gap even without hitting his upside. It only goes up from there.
I keep looking for the reason to fade him and the math won’t cooperate. The live downside is a camp pitch count or any hesitation about the knee. But you’re buying near the floor, not the ceiling, and the range from “midseason lead back” down to “flex-worthy timeshare” more than covers an RB36 cost. I’m comfortable anywhere beyond RB #34. Best ball and zero-RB builds are the cleanest homes for him, but he can be a useful depth add with upside in most any format.
Next we’ve got Zachariah Branch. He’s the kind of free lottery ticket I don’t mind holding. He’s Atlanta’s rookie returner, listed as the primary punt and kick man, which isn’t glamorous but guarantees snaps and a foot in the door. The receiving math is the interesting part: after Drake London the Falcons have no settled second option, and Darnell Mooney‘s departure in free agency vacated real targets. Branch‘s competition for that leftover work is Olamide Zaccheaus and Jahan Dotson, neither of whom is locked in. If he wins the movement role opposite London, WR4 value from a last-pick cost is perfectly reasonable, and if he stays return-first, you’ve lost nothing but a final-round best-ball slot. Take the dart but don’t spend redraft capital chasing OTA speed clips.
Now the two the market is punishing correctly – Darnell Mooney‘s spring optimism has evaporated for a good reason, and his ADP down around #208 reflects it honestly. He signed a one-year deal with the Giants and slots in as the WR3 behind Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton, with Calvin Austin III also in the mix. The trap here is the OTA mirage: Mooney ran with the first team this spring, but that’s because Nabers was working back from a knee injury and Slayton was sidelined too. Once the guys ahead of him are healthy, that first-team look evaporates and he’s the third option on a team that funnels everything through Nabers. His path back to flex value essentially requires an injury ahead of him, which isn’t a plan, it’s a lottery ticket. And it’s not like the 2025 tape begs you to bet on him anyway, he managed just a 32-443-1 line on 72 targets, never topping four catches in a game. Pass in redraft leagues. If you must own him, a deep best-ball stab at the basement price is the only version I would consider.
Ted Hurst is a similar story on a longer horizon. He’s drifted to roughly #196, WR #78. The discount might not even be enough. As a third-round rookie he sits behind Chris Godwin Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Tez Johnson, so a meaningful 2026 snap share basically depends on someone in front of him getting hurt. Mike Evans leaving for the 49ers cracked open the long-term door, which is exactly why Hurst is a dynasty conversation and not a redraft one. In seasonal formats he’s not even a final-round best-ball flier.